Looking at the momentum indicators, you can see just how quickly both the RSI and MACD have deteriorated over the last month. Both have seen support right around their respective midlines going back to last July's breakout. A break below there would signal a trend reversal for sure. Also worth noting is that the MACD in particular has really lagged price. In a strong market, momentum indicators will often lead price and at the very least move in lock step with the underlying security. For example, when the dollar was hitting highs last month, so too was the MACD - exactly what you would want to see in a bull market. Things have changed, however, just in the past couple of weeks. First, look how quickly the MACD fell from those highs. Second, notice how the MACD is now trading at its lowest level in six months (November 2014) while the price of the dollar remains just a few percent below its peak. This is a major non-confirmation and suggests significant underlying weakness.
I've drawn an intermediate term support line going back to last October. It's been touched a number of times on a weekly basis so I believe it carries some amount of significance. At 97.71, the dollar is sitting right on that trend line. Remember, 97.71 also represents the daily 50 dma so we're at an area of dual support. I've also drawn a small line of resistance that, when taken with the intermediate trend line, forms a bit of a wedge. We'll see if that's meaningful in the days and weeks to come. If the dollar continues to trade into the corner of that wedge, then there might actually be a powerful breakout imminent - but in which direction?
The cracks I see forming in the chart have to do with the momentum indicators. The RSI and MACD are both beginning to roll over. I could almost make the argument that the RSI has broken support and has entered a new downtrend, but I'll stop short of that since it's not quite confirmed yet. The MACD is just days away from completing a bearish cross which, as the name suggests, is not good for the dollar bulls. Both momentum indicators have been waaaaay overbought for months so a correction is almost certain. The timing of the correction, however, is the unknown.
To wrap this up, it's my opinion that the dollar is in a very precarious position from both the short term and intermediate term perspectives. Yes, it's still within its uptrend for the moment, but the solid footing upon which it stands is beginning to give way. If it breaks below its daily 50 dma, then I would expect a swift correction to the 94 level. Below that, the next support level would be around 88. While this doesn't sound like much on an absolute basis, in currency terms, this would be a huge move - particularly for the world's reserve currency.