Now, onto the chart. This one goes back to 1997 so we have almost 20 years of price action to look at. My first observation is that this chart looks like one massive topping pattern. My second observation is that price has found support - five times by my count - right at $25.00 (how about that for a nice round number?). Yes, it broke below in 2008/2009, but massive fiscal stimulus coupled with TBTF bailouts saved the day. Regardless, the $25 level represents major support.
Today DB trades around $29, comfortably above that little line in the sand, but take a look at that long-term trend...nothing but lower highs for the last 8 years. Folks, this is a sick chart, and I don't mean siiiiick, as in awesome. I mean sick as in something is terribly wrong under the surface for a long-term chart to look like this.
Again, I encourage you to read the two commentaries linked above. You will see that DB has a gross derivatives exposure of 54.7 Trillion Euros (or $62 Trillion USD). To put that in perspective, Germany's GDP is 2.74 Trillion Euros. How could their derivative exposure be so high you ask? You'll have to ask your lawmakers since 1) Bill Clinton refused to pass a law requiring derivatives regulation and 2) subsequent presidents and Congress have done jack squat about it since. Anyway, I digress...
The bottom line here is that DB's long-term chart suggests something very ugly is brewing and their announcement earlier this week does nothing but reinforce that notion. Could Deutsche Bank be the next Lehman? Or the next Lehman x10 as Mr. Kranzler contends?