What we see above is that the TNX is in a multi-year downtrend with each bar representing one month of trading data. The chart has followed a fairly clean descending line of resistance which is shown above. I've also drawn a horizontal support line that was established back in 2010 and has acted as continued support over the past 12 months. These two lines taken together reveal that the TNX is working itself into a declining wedge.
Wedge patterns resolve themselves by either breaking above the descending line of resistance or below the line of support. So what is this chart telling us? I believe prices are about to make a big break lower for the following reasons. First, the price has been falling, on average, for many years. This tells me that the path of least resistance will continue to be lower. Second, momentum indicators are flashing (screaming?) warning signals. The RSI is sitting right at the precarious midpoint and, more importantly, the MACD has just completed a bearish cross as noted with the green circle in the lower panel. As this is a long-term chart, it take a long time for these signals to reverse course. Compare it to turning a bass boat vs. turning an aircraft carrier. This chart represents the aircraft carrier. Once a trend is in place, it takes a long time for it to play out. With the bearish MACD cross, the trend is now lower and I would expect price to follow at any time.
Treasury yields tend to be closely related to the price of gold and silver. US treasuries, like gold and silver, are perceived as a very low risk investment and therefore represent a safe haven during uncertain economic times. As more investors buy treasuries, the lower yields will go. So, the correlation between precious metals (PM) and yields is that as yields fall, PM prices rise. Investors have historically purchased both PMs and treasuries as safe havens in times of economic weakness.
If my argument that yields will continue to fall is accurate (as evidenced by the TNX chart), then one should expect strong demand for gold and silver as well.