"The results charted reveal gold’s seasonal tendencies over any calendar year. Limiting this study to gold’s secular bull is important because prices behave very differently in secular bulls and bears. And it is essential to index each year individually before averaging them to ensure percentage comparability. With gold averaging $311 in 2002 and $1409 in 2013, its raw unindexed prices just aren’t equivalent.
Every calendar year’s gold prices are indexed off the final trading day’s close of the previous year, which is set to 100. If gold is up 10% at any time during a year, its index will read 110. These indexed percentage moves are always perfectly comparable regardless of gold’s absolute price level. Every year’s since 2001 individual index is then averaged together, yielding this unique and indispensable gold-bull seasonality chart."
It is clear from the chart above that June and July are the weakest months as the price of gold, on average, has fallen 2-3% during this 14-year secular bull market. What's encouraging for the bulls, however, is that from August through year-end, the average price move has been a gain of about 10%. Hamilton explains in much more detail the underlying factors that are driving the price in the back half of the year and I would encourage you to check it out. My point here is simply to show that from a longer-term seasonality perspective, gold bulls should have the wind at their back for the remaining 5 months of the year.